“To many fans, then, the primary way to measure a starting pitcher’s success is his won-lost record. Any pitcher worth his salt should win more than he loses, and a 20-win season is the hallmark of excellence. Except that there are two parts to winning a game: having your team score runs and preventing your opponent from doing so. In theory, pitchers can affect only half the equation by preventing runs. But since defense makes up a significant portion of run prevention, pitchers actually influence a fair bit less than half the equation” –Keith Woolner
A starting pitcher’s goal, whenever he takes the mound, is to get his team a win that day. When a pitcher successfully holds his opponent to fewer runs than his team scored that day, he is credited with a win. When he is unsuccessful, he is credited with a loss. Of course, as with any other statistic, it is not that simple. A pitcher may get staked a big lead, allow five runs and still earn a win. On the other hand, a pitcher may give up one run in a complete game and lose 1-0. Did the first pitcher pitch better than the second? Obviously not, but simply according to each pitcher’s win-loss record, he was more successful.
Thankfully, many media members and fans are coming around to this way of thinking. The 2009 AL Cy Young voting was evidence of that. Had the same season played out in the early 90’s, CC Sabathia would have run away with the award. There is even debate about whether or not he would have gotten the award in 2009 had he successfully won 20 games instead of 19. A pitcher on the Yankees, with their juggernaut offense, is often afforded more latitude, knowing that his team will score plenty of runs, whereas a pitcher for the Royals has to treat every pitch as if it’s Game 7 of the World Series. In 2009, Sabathia won 19 games with an ERA of 3.37 (not that ERA is a great statistic to use, but we’ll get into that later). Zack Greinke, on the other hand, only won 16 games for the Royals while sporting an otherworldly 2.16 ERA. Basically, wins and losses rely far too heavily on things that are outside the pitcher’s control to be taken seriously as a statistic.
Another problem with win-loss record is what happens after a starting pitcher exits the game. In today’s game very few pitchers can throw complete games with any kind of regularity, meaning that for a period of time the game is out of their hands completely. A pitcher may exit a game after a masterful 7 innings having given up 0 earned runs and in line for a win (as happened to John Lackey against the Yankees the other night) only to have the bullpen come in and blow the game. Instead of picking up the win, through no fault of their own, the pitcher now has a no-decision.
Instead of examining win-loss records, which are largely a matter of luck, it is far better to observe a pitcher’s peripheral statistics. A much better idea of a pitcher’s success can be garnered by observing his FIP or xFIP, WHIP, or even ERA.
